WASHINGTON (OSV News) – Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress Nov. 3 in a landslide midterm election, according to multiple projections, with significant ramifications for the final years of the Trump administration and its policies.
In major flips for Democrats, the party picked up Senate seats in typically Republican strongholds of Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa. Democratic candidates also won races in key swing states including North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, and Michigan. In Maine, Democratic candidate Troy Jackson defeated longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
At press time, Senate races in Mississippi and Alaska were still too close to call.
Some of those Senate races – notably Texas and both Carolinas – had Republican Senate candidates that were effectively selected by Trump. In Texas, Trump backed scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton in his primary challenge to incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton went on to lose the general election to his Democratic rival, state Rep. James Talarico, marking the first Senate victory for Democrats in the Lone Star State since 1994.
As of the morning of Nov. 3, Democrats were projected to win an 81-seat majority in the U.S. House, with estimates of 258 Democratic seats and 177 Republican seats.
John White, a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, told OSV News, "This is a shellacking of such magnitude that it’s hard to find a historical precedent. Probably the midterm elections of 1974 in the wake of Watergate."
White attributed the losses for the GOP to "corruption, costs, and cruelty."
Initial exit polling suggested that voters disapproved of Trump's job performance, including on several key issues: the economy, corruption, the Iran war, artificial intelligence, and his hardline immigration enforcement policies.
Trump, who previously told voters at rallies to "Pretend I'm on the ballot," said in a social media post Nov. 3 that "I wasn't on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter."
Robert Schmuhl, professor emeritus of American studies at the University of Notre Dame, who critically observes the modern American presidency, referenced that social media post in comments to OSV News, saying "Nothing could be further from the truth."
"At some 30 pre-election rallies, he kept announcing to audiences that they should vote as though he were on the ballot," Schmuhl said. "Clearly, the results show that the president and Trumpism are deeply unpopular and that the people want new leadership and a different political approach."
Incumbent presidents typically suffer midterm losses to some extent, analysts who spoke with OSV News said. But the magnitude of Republicans' defeats in House and Senate races across the country exceeded many initial estimates.
James Patterson, an associate professor of public affairs for the Institute of American Civics at the Baker School of Public Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and the co-author of "Why Postliberalism Failed," told OSV News, "The midterms during second administrations are always an uphill battle for a president."
"Remember that in 2014 Barack Obama experienced a similar result as last night's, one that became known as the 'shellacking,'" Patterson said. "That said, the GOP suffered the worst outcome possible, and that comes down to two factors."
Those factors, he said, were candidate selection, pointing to "the disreputable Ken Paxton or the inarticulate Mike Rogers," and unpopular Trump administration policies.
"Americans are unhappy with rapid price increases, and these are tied to the president’s obsession with tariffs," Patterson said. "These were bad enough, but adding a conflict in Iran made prices worse. That said, the Democrats nominated professed socialists and won. They made the most of a good night and deserve as much credit as the GOP does blame."
Multiple analysts cast the results as the beginning of the end of the Trump era in American politics.
"Although Trump now becomes a limping and weakened lame duck, he will try to do what he can to stay at the center of attention. That's his nature," Schmuhl said. "But how successful he'll be at accomplishing anything major is an open question. The Democratic majorities in both the Senate and the House will challenge him at every turn. That's clearly what the voters want them to do."
"It's the dawn of a new era in American politics – and the sunset of Trump and his MAGA movement," he continued. "The consequences of Tuesday's voting will reverberate for years to come."
Patterson concurred.
"Does this spell the end of the Trump era? It does," he said. "Trump’s coalition is not really one of party factions agreeing to a candidate but a personal brand that can win on a national stage. Lower-ticket imitations of Trump’s brand struggle to win, and that is because they lack decades of branding."
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, which works to elect pro-life candidates to public office, circulated a memo arguing that Republicans abandoned their base when it comes to abortion.
Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA, said in a Nov. 4 statement, "Republican consultants got the campaign they wanted – and the defeat they earned."
"You cannot spend years telling your base to sit down and shut up, then act surprised when they don’t stand up for you on Election Day. Republicans must stop running from the pro-life fight and start giving voters a reason to fight for them," she said.
While data about how Catholics ultimately voted is not yet clear, a Pew Research Center survey prior to the election found that among all Catholics, 42% said they planned to vote for the Democrat in their House district, 39% said the Republican, while another 19% said they were unsure or would select another party’s candidate. It also found white Catholics and Hispanic Catholics divided sharply over which party's candidates they planned to support.
A subsequent survey commissioned by Network, a Catholic social justice lobby, found that undecided Catholic voters are a swing voting bloc, but reliably show up to the polls.
The historic midterm elections were also the first in which a sitting pontiff, Pope Leo XIV, who is a U.S. citizen, cast a ballot. Prior to the election, the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops broadly encouraged eligible Catholics to vote, referring them to its document "Forming Consciences for Faithful Citizenship" as a reference point for discerning their choices at the ballot box.
Those elected to the 120th U.S. Congress are scheduled to be sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027.
