PARIS (OSV News) -- With a little over a week left in France to welcome Pope Leo XIV, the country's Catholics hope for a "breath" of "new life" into their Church from the pope.
They don't know the pontiff well, but are still counting on the "Leo effect," a newly released survey has shown.
According to the Sept. 15 poll conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion, or IFOP, and commissioned by Catholic media outlets Famille Chrétienne, Aleteia and RCF Notre Dame, more than a quarter of respondents -- 26% -- said Pope Leo's apostolic visit could "breathe new life into the Church in France."
Asked what they would like Pope Leo to address in the country, nearly 1 in 3, or 28%, said "peace and global conflicts," with the respondents also hoping "he will speak candidly about the issue of sexual abuse."
While 58% of French respondents don't have an opinion on whether Pope Leo defends Catholic values well, 32% of those who will welcome the pope for the Sept. 25-28 visit to Paris, Lourdes and Metz said the American pope defends them "quite well."
French commentators point out that the country's Catholic community is looking forward to "Leo's effect."
For Jérôme Fourquet, director of the opinion department at IFOP, French Catholics are looking for a momentum similar to the one seen during World Youth Day 1997 with St. John Paul II.
"One of the goals of (Pope) Leo XIV's visit to France is precisely to create such moments of fervor," he told Famille Chrétienne, commenting on the newest survey.
For Bishop Pierre-Antoine Bozo, spokesman for the French bishops' conference, "there is a genuine thirst in the heart of modern man," and in France, "this spiritual curiosity is awakening" and is seen widely through a record number of baptized Catholics.
"I would add that the pope's message has the power to resonate with the existential aspirations of many French people," he said. "He comes to light a spark on fertile ground," he told Famille Chrétienne.
Fourquet predicts that "those who are 15, 20 or 25 years old today" and who take part in events with the pope -- "will later be able to testify to the extraordinary impact it had on their lives." For some "it will even shape their life choices," he said, pointing out to many priests admitting in the past they found their vocation through WYD 1997.
While "Leo XIV is not very well known to the French public," Bishop Bozo added, this apostolic journey "is precisely the opportunity for them to get to know him -- to meet him not only as the head of the Church but also as Robert Prevost, with his own distinct personality."
What French Catholics greatly appreciate, and wait for, the survey has shown, is the papal message of peace.
"In a world defined by sound and fury, (Pope) Leo XIV's personality stands out very clearly indeed," Forquet emphasized. "He is a figure of an era where aggression has become the norm," and in this moment "There is a real need for a stabilizing force," he said. Pope Leo "answers this latent expectation among a segment of the population."
Nearly 600,000 people have registered to attend the pope's Mass in Paris on Sept. 26 -- a truly massive turnout, according to observers.
Archbishop Laurent Ulrich of Paris described it as "a number that exceeds all our expectations" in a Sept. 16 press release.
"Given this large turnout, the Archdiocese of Paris is setting up an additional area, secured by law enforcement," he said, announcing that the area for participants was extended but registration has been closed for that event.
Still, sociologist Yann Raison du Cleuziou cautioned that enthusiasm does not signal a broad Catholic revival.
For Raison du Cleuziou, professor of political science, historian, sociologist of religion and one of the most renowned experts on French Catholicism, the numbers are not yet proving a comeback of Catholicism as a major force in French society.
"We should not conclude from this that Catholicism is regaining significant influence" as "secularization continues in France," he told OSV News.
"The enthusiasm for the reopening of Notre Dame in 2024 was genuine," he said, noting "renewed spiritual vitality in certain parishes and movements, and an objective increase in adult baptisms in recent years," but the number of practicing Catholics, he said, "continues to decline."
According to Raison du Cleuziou, it's not communities or the Church as an institution that introduces change in society these days. "Individuality plays a decisive role in society far more so than communities and institutions," he said, "and the voice of the Catholic Church as such is no longer taken into account."
"In this context, the future of the Church in France depends on those who remain," Raison du Cleuziou noted. "In general, it is the most conservative Catholics -- those who are very devout and closely follow the Church's teachings -- who have been most successful in passing on the Catholic faith from one generation to the next. Three-quarters of today's seminarians come from these families."
For Raison du Cleuziou, today's younger generations of Catholics in France are very different from those in the 1970s. They are not ashamed of their Catholicism -- on the contrary -- they want to show off that they're proud of who they are.
"They want to clearly display their identity, rather than fade into the background, at the risk of being diluted by the dominant secular culture. Seminarians, for example, are increasingly in favor of wearing the cassock, at least occasionally, whereas it had almost completely disappeared after the (Second Vatican) Council."
"Young people also feel the need for beautiful, meaningful liturgies that combine both a sense of inner reflection and solemnity in the liturgy, along with traditional theological instruction, and clear guidelines for everyday life," Raison du Cleuziou noted. "And they are reviving individual devotions and collective expressions of popular piety that had been set aside by their elders, such as processions with banners or devotion to the Sacred Heart."
Still, the "dominant group in France today," about 70% of the French population, is the "nonreligious," Raison du Cleuziou told OSV News.
"Among those over (the age of) 60, nearly one in two still identifies as Catholic, but among 18- to 29-year-olds, that figure has dropped to just 15%," the expert pointed out. "Young Catholics therefore feel like a very small minority. And they are closely followed by Muslims, who now make up 13% of their age group and openly embrace their faith and religious practices without any hesitation."
In this context, he said, "the presence of Catholics who have immigrated to France, for example, those from Africa, is important," as immigrant Catholics "embrace their faith openly, calmly and simply," he said, adding they integrate well into parishes, which are now more vibrant in cities than in the countryside.
For Raison du Cleuziou, the phenomenon of catechumens and neophytes, who often come from families that were once Catholic, is an important indicator of the state of French Catholicism.
"They say they had an 'experience of encountering Jesus' that has transformed their lives," he explained. "It was this encounter that led them to seek to deepen an intimate relationship with Christ they have discovered."
"For these newly baptized individuals, belonging to the Church as an institution was not a priority at first," Raison du Cleuziou concluded. "They are not very familiar with the Holy See and the pope. Nevertheless, the visit of Pope Leo XIV, who will meet with some of them, is sure to intrigue them and should pique their interest."
